Like a lot of countries on the African continent, Ethiopia has an exceptionally low motorisation rate. Ethiopia has a population of 126 million people, but the total number of vehicles registered in Ethiopia is around 1.2 million. Most of these vehicles are over 20 years old. According to reports and announcements from the Ethiopian government, Ethiopia had a plan to catalyse adoption of electric vehicles in Ethiopia with a 10 year target to see 148,000 electric cars and close to 50,000 electric buses on Ethiopia’s roads by 2030. However, Ethiopia has made incredible progress on this path to the extent that the Ministry of Transport and Logistics recently said that this target of over 100,000 electric vehicle has already been met in just the first 2 years of this plan! How cool is that?
Due to this incredible progress, the target has since been bumped up to close to 500,000 in the 10-year period. Let’s take a moment to take this all in. So, in just 2 years, locally assembled EVs and imported EVs have added almost 10% of Ethiopia’s current total ICE vehicle registrations! Let us say that all the vehicles in the current fleet stay on the road for the next 8 years (highly unlikely) and the total fleet will then be 1.7 million. If the target is met, it would mean the penetration of electric vehicles in Ethiopia’s total fleet will be close to 30% at that time. This will be quite a remarkable feat. Of course, the actual number will be more than 30%, as a lot of the vehicles in the current ICE fleet will be retired by then. Also, given the extremely low motorisation in Ethiopia, vehicle sales should grow at a much faster rate going forward, and probably the penetration of EVs in the country’s total fleet will hit close to 50% by then.
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